Week of February 14, 2011
Every week Big Ten Hoops Talk will be sharing their opinions on where each team stands relative to an NCAA tournament bid. These are projections are if the season ended today. Enjoy this weeks Bubble Talk, we are only one month away!
Put on the Dancing Shoes
Ohio State (24-1, 11-1 Big Ten)
RPI: 3RPI Top 50 record: 6-1
SOS: 31
Key Wins: @ 14 Florida, 11 Purdue
Bad Losses: None.
Projected Seed: #1
The Buckeyes are primed for a #1 seed come March. Ohio State has made a habit of eeking out nail-biters, but is in solid position to secure a spot on the top line. Buckeye fans can expect their first round opponent to be a 16 seed, but be wary of upcoming games at Purdue and against Wisconsin. They must also make sure they avoid an early exit in the Big Ten Tournament. However, even so, it would take an unforeseen happening such as a team like San Diego State running the table to land on the two line.
Wisconsin (19-5, 9-3 Big Ten)
RPI: 18RPI Top 50 record: 5-3
SOS: 37
Key Wins: 2 Ohio State, Minnesota, Illinois, Boston College
Bad Losses: @ Penn State
Projected Seed: #3
With a win this past Saturday, (beating the last remaining undefeated team) Wisconsin has jumped into the national spotlight, and the top ten. If they continue this run, they could potentially earn a #2 seed. But don't be surprised if Wisconsin drops a few games along the way against Purdue, Ohio State, or any of the four lesser Big Ten teams. This may drop them to a #4 or #5 seed. They are missing a signature road win to really have a chance at landing on the two line.
Purdue (20-5, 9-3 Big Ten)
RPI: 10RPI Top 50 record: 2-4
SOS: 25
Key Wins: @ Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota
Bad Losses: None.
Projected Seed: #3
Purdue and Wisconsin are very similar teams and are both deserving of a high seed come March. If Purdue can win out this upcoming week, with both Wisconsin and OSU coming to town, I would safely put them among the mix for a #2 seed. With that being said, Purdue now stands in a great position of obtaining at least a #3 seed.
In, but work to be done....
Minnesota (17-8, 6-7 Big Ten)
Illinois (16-9, 6-6 Big Ten)
RPI: 39RPI: 37
RPI Top 50 record: 3-5
SOS: 29
Key Wins: vs 11 Purdue, 19 North Carolina, West Virginia
Bad Losses: Virginia, Indiana
Projected Seed: #8
Minnesota has struggled mightily the past month in conference play, but they have two strong OOC wins against UNC and WVU. With Al Nolen out, contributions from junior sensation Trevor Mbakwe has been imperative to Minnesota's success The Gophers should be able to take care of business down the stretch as they face a favorable schedule. But they need a win at Penn State on Thursday night to further solidify their case that they deserve to be fitted for dancing shoes.
Illinois (16-9, 6-6 Big Ten)
RPI Top 50 record: 3-5
SOS: 20
Key Wins: Wisconsin, North Carolina, @Minnesota
Bad Losses: UIC, Indiana, Northwestern
Projected Seed: #9
The Illini have a couple of head-scratching losses at Indiana and Northwestern. But the Illinois does have very impressive home victories against Wisconsin and North Carolina on their resume. If Illinois can finish up the season with a signature road win, or finally realize their talents in the Big Ten Tournament, they will be among the teams in the running for a #6-8 seed.
Right on the fence..
Michigan State (14-10, 6-7 Big Ten)
RPI: 51RPI Top 50 record: 3-8
SOS: 9
Key Wins: Washington, Minnesota, #10 Wisconsin
Bad Losses:@Penn State
Projected Seed: #12
Although the Spatans put together an admirable effort Thursday night in Columbus, there are no moral victories. The committee only cares about wins and Michigan State failed to pull out the victory. It has been a tumultuous season, but they seemed to regain their chemistry last Thursday in East Lansing. Keep an eye on the Spartans as they are talented enough to sneak into the dance, but they will have to finish the season strong.
Looking Through the Window..
Michigan (16-10, 6-7 Big Ten)
RPI: 59RPI Top 50 record: 1-7
SOS: 18
Key Wins: @Michigan State, @Penn State
Bad Losses: Indiana, Northwestern
Projected destination: NIT
With a disappointing 2010 campaign and the departure of Manny Harris, Michigan began the season struggling to find its identity. While they are still on the outside of the bubble, they do have a chance if they can gain momentum off of their current 3-game winning streak.
Penn State (13-11, 6-7 Big Ten)
RPI: 63RPI top 50 record: 2-4
SOS: 7
Key Wins: #10 Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois
Bad Losses: Maryland, Maine, Michigan.
Projected destination: NIT
For this Penn State team to have a realistic chance to make the tournament, they must go 4-1 for the remainder of the season. They must also show up to play come Big Ten Tourney time. But with two Minnesota showdowns and dates at Wisconsin and home against Ohio State looming, the Lions chances are slipping right through their claws.
Better Luck Next Year
The teams listed below might have to start taking some dancing lessons, and fast! The following teams must win the Big Ten Tournament to receive an automatic bid to the dance. Chances: slim to none.
Northwestern (14-10, 4-9 Big Ten)
Indiana (12-14, 3-10 Big Ten)
Iowa (10-15, 3-10 Big Ten)
